Can lightning strike twice?

About a week to go before my next marathon and I am not exactly sure what is going happening next Sunday. When I did the California International Marathon two years ago, I was totally ready for it on pretty much every level. I was in great shape, had done all the long runs, escaped injury and sickness, and was super motivated to finally break 3.30 minutes. And I did it. It was probably the best race of my life.

This year things have gone good and bad.

+/- I haven't had any really injuries in the past year and I have avoided bad colds. In fact,, I haven't missed a work out in over 300 days, which could be actually really stupid. Since my mental well being depends on a daily workout, I don't ever get the critical rest I need to build up and improve, and also don't do super hard workouts since I am never fresh enough to do them. But I am willing to sacrifice this to maintain my sanity.

- I didn't quite do as many long runs as I wanted; my three longest ones were 18.2, 16.3 and 15.8. Two weeks ago I wanted to do 18 but cramped at around 16 miles.I am rationalizing this by blaming it on a very warm that day. Of course at the end of the 18.2 miler I did do I was cramping big time and it was a perfect running weather. The last two days I did a 12 and 10 mile run and I managed to hold it together. So I have some hope.

- I am about 10 pounds heavier for this race than I was two years ago. This is primarily due to my creatine addiction, which I have taken every day for the last 19 months. This extra 6-7% body weight is not going to do me any good in the race and might be the source of my recent cramping due to the extra pounding. I am going to try and keep off the creatine for the next week in the hope that I can drop a few pounds.

+ Mentally I am excited to do the race. It is a completely flat if even a little bit downhill race but I have no illusions that it will be easy. However, I am going to enjoy the race no matter what and will not be crushed if I don't run another 3.27.40. It's not even a goal.

The goals:

1) Run the whole race
2) Break 3.37
3) Break 3.30.

After this it's on to training for more marathons, the Death Ride, 508 and CrossFit.